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The unfolding crisis in Ukraine has roiled commodity markets and threatens global food security. Ongoing fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors have already driven up food prices. Poor harvests in South America, strong global demand, and supply chain issues have reduced grain and oilseed inventories and driven prices to their highest levels since 2011-2013.

The FAO Food Price Index rose 3 percent in October to reach its highest level since July 2011. The October Index stood 31.3 percent higher than its October 2020 levels. Last month’s increase was driven primarily by cereal (particularly wheat) and vegetable oil prices.

The FAO Food Price Index continued to rise in September, driven by increasing cereal and vegetable oil prices. The Index was up 1.2 percent from August 2021 and 32.8 percent from September 2020.

The structure and behavior of agricultural input markets, such as fertilizer or seed markets, can have significant regional and global effects on agricultural development and, thus, food security. Prohibitively high costs and other constraints can limit the use of beneficial inputs and lead to decreased agricultural productivity, which can negatively impact farmers as well as consumers. On the other hand, input producers may benefit from higher prices.